■ The New Sudan: nothing can be taken for granted

Paulos Tesfagiorgis, senior advisor for Democracy and Constitution Building in Africa at International IDEA

South Sudan is about to become the world's newest nation this weekend. After over 30 years of armed conflict with North Sudan, the southern part officially becomes a sovereign nation on 9 July 2011, following the referendum earlier this year.

As a new nation, however, there are many challenges South Sudan will encounter while carving out a lasting constitutional framework that not only reflects its history and struggles, but is also capable of addressing the huge economic, social and political challenges it faces as it seeks to establish and assert itself among the community of states. Eritrea went through the same route and, despite a highly successful participatory constitution building process in 1995, the fight seems to be far from finished.

International IDEA sat together with IDEA expert Paulos Tesfagiorgis (Eritrea) from its South Africa, Pretoria office, to break down the issues and to gain a better understanding of the situation.

Q) In 1991, Eritreans voted in the UN supervised referendum for independence from Ethiopia, thereby ending a 30 year conflict between the two countries. Today, a similar scenario has unfolded in Southern Sudan. As a former Eritrean activist who has lived through both experiences, what parallels can you draw between the struggles and experiences of the two countries?

A) There are historical differences between Eritrea and Sudan, in particular the element of South Sudan. The manner and management of the armed struggle in both cases was different as well as the result of the resolution of the conflict. The Eritrean war of independence was consummated as a result of the liberation struggle, led by the Eritrea Peoples Liberation Front – EPLF, militarily defeating the Ethiopian Army. Independence was a foregone conclusion; the referendum was therefore, both symbolic and a peaceful and a legal expression of the Eritrea people for self-determination, for independence. It also paved the way for smoother recognition of Eritrea’s independence by the international community. Eritrea did not have to contend with opposition forces, ancient regime institutions, wealth-sharing problems, nor even with visible border misunderstandings with the former occupying force.

In the case of Sudan, the violent conflict between the Northern and Southern parts ceased as a result of a stalemate with no visible military winner or loser, and as a result of immense pressure and intervention by neighboring states. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Eastern Africa, the support and involvement of the African Union, the UN and the international community worked to settle the war peacefully. After long and complicated negotiations the result was the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in January 2005.

The CPA addressed and proposed solutions, but did not resolve the multiple inter-related conflicts in South Kordofan/Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile States and Abyei areas, all part of the north-south conflict. These are still today potential sources of an endless dispute and can easily fuel the return of violent conflicts.

Q) What lessons can South Sudan draw from Eritrea in the regard of building its new constitution, taking into account the mentioned particular challenges the country has faced?

A) Wars of liberation do not, in practical terms, prepare and equip people to build a democratic state despite all the goodwill and commitment on the part of liberation movements, their leaders and members. When it comes to a military power, the main objective of war of liberation is to destroy the enemy. It is based on a different set of values, organization and activities, far from consultation, dialogue, consensus building and democratic decision making processes.

South Sudan has embarked on a democracy and nation building process with many major problems that are still unresolved. It has drafted an interim constitution which will be proclaimed tomorrow, 9 July, as part of the demonstration of its independence. The interim constitution unfortunately is supported by weak institutions, severe shortage of human resources and infrastructure, just to name a few. Nothing, therefore, can be taken for granted. South Sudan, or the new Republic of South Sudan as of tomorrow, will need continued goodwill of the international community and consistent and strong support in all economic, political and social fields.

Q) South Sudan may be on the road to independence but particular regional issues prevail and need to be taken into account. For one, the strategic oil rich region of Abyei remains disputed between the two Sudan regions. Furthermore, the separate referendums provided by the CPA are indefinitely postponed, and neither of the two Sudan regions chose settling with the solution that the regions would join into one.

What is your take on these issues and what other alternatives could be offered, and what do you think could be the impact of this unresolved and volatile question on the future relations between the North and the South?

A)   The curse of oil hangs over the future relations between the North and the South. Oil is extremely important for both regions, as it drives their economies. 98% of the South’s economy depends on oil, while 65% of the North’s. CPA has introduced a 50-50 stipulation of oil revenue sharing, but the South and North will have to renegotiate as both need each other. Three-fourths of the oil reserves used so far come from the South; however, the pipelines taking the oil to international markets pass through the North. Significant oil revenues flow into the coffers of the current Government of Sudan, and they have not been able to address the abject poverty prevalent in the South, prompting the accusation of rampant corruption, misuse and mismanagement of oil revenues.

In addition, South Sudan faces challenges of building a common national identity that can transcend regional, ethnic and tribal allegiances, integrate the millions of Southerners that are internally displaced or turned into refugees caused by the years of war and conflict.

This weekend is fast approaching and the people of this soon to become a new nation are emotionally splintered between bracing for the worst while hoping for the best. Excitement is growing in the South Sudan capital Juba, when the day of celebration sought for decades becomes reality tomorrow.

Tesfagiorgis emphasizes that the very difficult challenges demand adequate management and resolution to avoid return to active hostilities with the North and internal instability within its own new borders. The creation process and design of the new permanent constitution should take into account the above facts. Continuing support to the new State by the international community and organizations like IDEA will be crucial.

Paulos Tesfagiorgis is senior advisor for Democracy and Constitution Building in Africa at International IDEA. He is based in IDEA’s Africa Regional Office in Pretoria, South Africa.