■ Democratic Transition: Guinea Set for Presidential Elections as Challenges Linger

Massacre in Guinea

On June 27 2010, Guineans shall finally go to the polls in what - if expectations hold true - shall be one of the first democratic elections ever organised in Guinea - a country of over 10 million inhabitants. The presidential elections are the last phase in an overdue transition process expected to end military rule which has been in place since December 2008, following a coup d'état by Moussa Dadis Camara.

The election is part of a deal brokered by ECOWAS representative and Burkinabe President, Blaise Campaore last January with current transition president - Sekouba Konate and Dadis Camara, calling for presidential elections within six months of the agreement. Following earlier announcements in March, a presidential decree in early May effectively set the dates for the first and second round of elections for June 27 and 18 July respectively. Konate has expressed his desire to see the transition through as soon as possible.

Front runners, by various accounts, include Alpha Conde of the Guinea Peoples' Movement (RPG), and three former Prime Ministers - Sidya Toure, Cellou Dalein Diallo and François Fall. A myriad of other minor candidates are lined up making it unlikely that any one party will get a clear majority needed to avoid a run off. Yet, as Guinea looks set to taking the ultimate next step towards democratic civilian rule, a cloud of uncertainty still looms.

The Constitutional Reform Question

Unable to resist the winds of political change that blew across Africa following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, Guineans voted in a referendum, in the same year, to adopt a liberal democratic constitution which abolished military rule, liberalised politics and reduced executive powers and the presidential mandate to two five year terms. However, alleged electoral irregularities effectively ensured that ex President Lansana Conte won every election since then, to the disillusionment of Guineans who had adopted the new constitution with optimism comparable only to that of the independence era. Living standards dropped amidst increased corruption, prompting constant political riots, civil disobedience and attempted coup d'états between 1993 and 2000, as Guineans slowly realised that Conte had little intention of implementing the 1990 reforms . In response, a new constitution that effectively reversed the gains made in 1990 by abolishing term limits - so Conte could seek re election - was instead adopted in a much criticised referendum in 2001. Conte's death in 2008 was seen as an opportunity to reset the wheels - despite the unexpected military intervention.

With the ongoing transition, expectations have been high for a process that will also involve an inclusive and comprehensive, participatory constitutional reform process to allow ordinary Guineans a direct voice in the establishment of a democratic society based on principles of constitutionalism. On the contrary, the Transitional National Council (CNT) led by Rabiatou Serah Diallo - a trade unionist, in April, wrote and adopted a constitution which was promulgated by presidential decree on May 6. Jean Marie Dore - the Prime Minister - who is at loggerheads with Serah Diallo over the way the new constitution was established, favoured a referendum on the document, and has openly denounced and criticised the process. Other critics argue that its contents would be incomprehensible to ordinary Guineans who have neither been consulted nor given the chance to comment on the document.

To the extent that neither the transitional president nor the CNT's mandates were, at any point, directly confirmed by the Guinean people, the mechanism through which this constitution has come into being opens a whole new pandora's box, regardless of its apparently progressive provisions. Considering the experiences between 1990 and 2001 and up to Conte's death in 2008, it would seem, arguably though, that crucial issues relevant for long term stability and sustainability are being overlooked despite the apparent good will of the current transition actors. As the transition process seems irreversible at this stage, and, in an era where the principle of popular participation in political processes has acquired a meaning beyond mere voting in periodic elections, the key questions that arise is whether the current situation can be salvaged to guarantee that this constitution - despite it - is effectively insulated from crises-breeding political manipulation in the near future? What role, if any can /should regional bodies - especially ECOWAS which has been instrumental to date - play in achieving this objective? Or again, should Guinea take a step back - despite the logistical implications - to re - examine the risks and opportunities of the current road map, before proceeding on course? Are there any other possible options at this stage?

By Tayuh Ngenge
June 3, 2010